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International trade development in 2026 is expected to be characterized by moderate growth and greater operational complexity than in previous years. In this article, we examine the forecasts and explain what they mean for international logistics, highlighting the strategies businesses will need to adopt to stay competitive.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts an international trade development of +0.5%, a figure that reflects a market that remains in motion but is surrounded by tighter controls, more paperwork and more uncertainty.1 The2026 Global Trade Report by Thompson Reuters2 confirms this trend and points to a year in which international logistics will be decisive to sustain supply chains under new pressure: Sourcing decisions shift faster than in previous years. Companies are reviewing contracts, adjusting routes and assessing alternatives that help reduce exposure to tariff measures or border delays. In practice, this means international logistics will need to operate with more variable scenarios, less predictable flows and a higher level of operational risk than in prior cycles.
With positive but fragile progress forcasted, millions of additional shipments must pass through more demanding customs authorities, stricter control systems and documentary environments that leave no room for errors.
Let’s take a look at the factors companies need to consider in order to get a handle on international logistics chains – which, according to expectations, will be the point of focus for next year’s tensions.
One of the standout findings in the 2026 Global Trade Report is the speed at which international logistics chains are being reconfigured. This is a strategic repositioning that affects where products are made, which countries they are imported from and which routes sustain those flows. This reorganization has a direct impact on transportation: it changes lead times, risks, required documentation and the number of stakeholders involved in each move.
These moves respond to a need to reduce vulnerability in a more volatile trade structure. But every decision has an immediate effect on logistics. Changing suppliers means new customs processes, new regulations, new certificates and, in many cases, more complex routes. Even when physical distance is reduced, as with nearshoring, documentation and regulatory requirements do not disappear.
When this sourcing redesign happens, logistics stops operating on established flows and shifts to continuous adaptation. This requires more precise planning, better-connected systems and much closer communication across procurement, operations and transportation. Companies that can translate these changes into coordinated logistics decisions will be better prepared to absorb 2026’s complexity without losing efficiency.
Another relevant point in the report is the growing operational burden on companies that manage foreign trade. It is not only more documentation, it also requires more time, more validations and more internal coordination. Foreign trade, procurement, planning and compliance teams are working with larger files and processes that demand greater precision.
Teams report more overtime, more time spent reviewing tariff classifications, greater reporting requirements and a significant rise in documentation-related stress. In many cases, the volume of information requested by customs authorities has expanded and each shipment may require additional checks or more detailed traceability. This slows decision-making and increases the risk of incidents.
Customs delays may become more frequent, especially on routes with higher geopolitical sensitivity or in sectors subject to reinforced controls. Many companies acknowledge these disruptions are no longer exceptions but regular features of the process. That means less ability to plan and a stronger need for logistics solutions that can respond quickly.
On top of this, new regulations will come into effect during 2026. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will require far more detailed tracking of embedded carbon in certain products, which will force additional data collection and assured traceability. Export controls will be stricter in several countries, especially in technology and energy sectors. The removal of the de minimis threshold in the United States will have a direct impact on e-commerce, which will need to manage duties even for low-value shipments. New data residency requirements in China will require a review of how information is shared and stored with companies in the country.
Each of these measures increases documentary and operational pressure and pushes companies to rely on logistics that can absorb these requirements without affecting lead times.
To deal with this complexity, many companies are accelerating technology adoption. Visibility, advanced analytics and document digitization are increasingly seen as essential to anticipate disruptions and manage supply chains with more requirements.
The report includes telling figures: 58% use analytics in their supply chain, 54% use visibility tools and 43% integrate a TMS into their operations. In addition, 40% are exploring solutions based on artificial intelligence or blockchain for classification, compliance or document audit tasks. However, only 7% monitor tariff changes in real time, leaving many organizations unable to anticipate regulatory shifts that can seriously affect costs and lead times.
Technology does not remove complexity, but it makes it easier to manage.
Real-time visibility helps detect delays before they compromise delivery. Analytics helps predict congestion or border disruptions. Document digitization reduces errors and speeds up processes that previously required multiple manual checks. In a 2026 environment where changes can happen simultaneously across several markets, the ability to anticipate and respond is a competitive advantage.
The WTO analysis1 and the 2026 Global Trade Report2 converge on three fundamental priorities for sustaining the international trade development of next year.
Documentation is growing in volume and complexity. Companies will need to ensure their processes are thorough, digital and compatible with regulations that update quickly. More robust document management will reduce incidents and improve clearance times.
The ability to anticipate disruptions will be essential. Combining real-time visibility, advanced analytics and integrated systems helps detect issues before they impact operations and supports better-informed decision-making.
Sourcing reorganization means routes and logistics conditions will change more often. Companies will need logistics structures that can adapt to these shifts without compromising continuity.
As the reports have shown, international trade development 2026 will be shaped by growth, albeit within a more regulated framework sensitive to documentary or customs variation. Companies that work with more accurate information, more structured processes and flexible logistics are better prepared to handle changing routes and shifting requirements, gaining more room to maintain operational continuity. A logistics partner with industry expertise and global supply chain experience helps bring all these elements together, creating transparency, reducing complexity and allowing businesses to focus on their core operations.
One decisive advantage of working with an international logistics expert like Rhenus: global connectivity that helps move goods in an environment where everything changes faster. Additionally, the Rhenus 4PL setup helps to streamline the entire value and supply chain, keeping track of orders from early stages in the production to delivery, all while leveraging suppliers, interfaces and supply chain steps. With deep experience in international logistics, document management and operational planning, Rhenus experts work alongside companies so their flows keep running in any scenario.
1 Source: The World Trade Organization: AI goods and frontloading lift world trade in 2025 but outlook dims for 2026
2 Source: Thompson Reuters: 2026 Global Trade Report
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